USD/JPY, Thu Mar/22/2018, MACD Analysis: -0.45% Drop Confirm A Bearish-Trend

Figure-1 USD/JPY MACD (TF:D1, Thu Mar/22/2018 00:00:00)

For USD/JPY market close at Thu Mar/22/2018 00:00:00, a moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) analysis for USD/JPY is generated. The analysis computation and presentation method uses MetaTrader version of MACD [1], and additional MACD-Signal difference is added to add the analysis with the price acceleration representation (as seen in MACD histogram in other version [2]). The indicator plot is depicted in the Figure 1, showing the candlestick plot on the top, the MACD indicator bar and line in the middle, and the MACD-Signal difference histogram in the bottom.

MACD Polarity as Trend Direction Detection: An under-zero of MACD value is performed by the indicator, and it gives an insight of a down-trend. The last market closing (Wed, Mar 21) shows -0.45% (-4830.00 pips) fall in price from 106.51900 to 106.03600, this could be a confirmation that the bearish-trend will continue its path. With the last recorded MACD cross is trigered 50 trading days ago on 01/10/2018 and confirmed by the signal cross detected 49 trading days ago on 01/11/2018, neglecting the price acceleration/decceleration, the down-trend is predicted to keep its path.

MACD-Signal Difference as Price Acceleration Figure: This acceleration/decceleration analysis is applicable in case the MACD-Signal crossover is selected to trigger the buy/sel signal. The acceleration of the price movement keeps its direction for the last 18 trading days since the previous crossover on 02/23/2018, and the long floating position should be held until the next flip. The trend represented by the MACD level is currently bearish while the acceleration show the reverse direction. A persistent view of this strategy would be interpreted that the bearish-movement will deccelerate so a quick trend reversal forecast is made.

REFERENCES

  1. MACD Technical Analysis, Technical analysis with MetaTrader version of MACD
  2. MACD Wikipedia, Various implementation of moving average convergence/divergence analysis

Presented Analysis
Data time: 2018-03-22 00:00:00
Optimization data:
Created time: 2018-03-22 00:00:07
Realtime: yes
Private publish time: 2018-03-22 00:00:15
Analysis Model Summary
First created: 2018-02-21 13:37:11
First data: 2015-01-02 00:00:00
Historical data since: 2018-02-21 13:37:11
Realtime data since: 2018-02-23 00:00:00
Latest data: 2018-03-23 00:00:00