USD/JPY, Fri Mar/23/2018, MACD Analysis: Down-Trend Strong Indication, -0.73% Decrease in The Last Update

Figure-1 USD/JPY MACD (TF:D1, Fri Mar/23/2018 00:00:00)

An MACD (moving average convergence/divergence) analysis for USD/JPY is generated for candle close at Fri Mar/23/2018 00:00:00. The analysis computation and presentation method follow the MetaTrader version of MACD [1], and an MACD-Signal difference is added to complete the analysis with the price acceleration information (as presented by MACD histogram in other version [2]). The indicator chart is presented in the Figure 1, showing the price chart on the top, the MACD indicator bar and line in the middle, and the MACD-Signal difference histogram in the bottom.

Trend Direction Detection by MACD Polarity: A less than zero of MACD level is shown by the indicator, and it is a prediction of a down-trend. The last closed bar (Thu, Mar 22) shows -0.73% (-7720.00 pips) decrease in price from 106.03600 to 105.26400, this is a confirmation that the down-trend will continue its line. With the last MACD cross is produced 51 trading days ago on 01/10/2018 and confirmed by the signal cross detected 50 trading days ago on 01/11/2018, disregarding the price acceleration/decceleration, the down-trend is predicted to keep its path.

MACD-Signal Difference as Price Acceleration Figure: The acceleration/decceleration analysis is applicable if the MACD-Signal crossover is used to trigger the trade signal. The price movement acceleration has never change its direction for 19 trading days since its cross on 02/23/2018, and any buy floating trade should be hold until the next crossing. The trend predicted by the MACD value is currently down while the acceleration show the reverse direction. A rational view of this strategy would mean that the down-move will deccelerate and an early trend reversal guess is resulted.

REFERENCES

  1. MACD Technical Analysis, Technical analysis with MetaTrader version of MACD
  2. MACD Wikipedia, Various implementation of moving average convergence/divergence analysis

Presented Analysis
Data time: 2018-03-23 00:00:00
Optimization data:
Created time: 2018-03-23 00:00:04
Realtime: no
Private publish time: 2018-03-23 05:21:07
Analysis Model Summary
First created: 2018-02-21 13:37:11
First data: 2015-01-02 00:00:00
Historical data since: 2018-02-21 13:37:11
Realtime data since: 2018-02-23 00:00:00
Latest data: 2018-03-23 00:00:00